Each month Bloomberg surveys 60 to 70 economists to get their estimates of where Fed Funds, the 2-year Treasury, and the 10-year Treasury will be over the next several quarters. I take this data and interpolate for the points in between the survey data to create the attached report. This allows us to get a broad view of where various economists see interest rates going over the coming quarters.
This study uses the average of all responses in the Survey. Using the Median response shows that the group expects no change in the overnight rate until at least the 4th quarter of 2010. We still have a lot of economic data pointing to a very sluggish recovery so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that forecast for higher rates getting kicked down the road in next month’s survey.
If you have any questions or if there is anything I can be doing for you just let me know.
Steve Scaramastro, SVP
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