Each month Bloomberg surveys 60 to 70 economists to get their estimates of where Fed Funds, the 2-year Treasury, and the 10-year Treasury will be over the next several quarters. I take this data and interpolate for the points in between the survey data to create the attached report. This allows us to get a broad view of where various economists see interest rates going over the coming quarters.
We continue to get a forecast that doesn’t show Fed Funds trading higher than 1.00% until the furthest time period in the survey. It’s clear from the numbers below that nobody expects Fed Funds to be rising in 2009. That forecast isn’t surprising given the trend of the economic data coupled with the Feds statements that they plan on keeping rates low for quite a while.
As I worked this up this morning I took a look at the Bloomberg forecast for the Unemployment Rate. The average forecast for 2009 is 8.95%. The 2010 forecast rises to 9.38%. As I wrote in the Market Update earlier this week it doesn’t look like we’re in for a quick “V” shaped recovery.
If you have any questions on this material please let me know.
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1 comment:
When will you post your June interpolated yield curve forecast. Great information.
Thanks
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